This paper replicates and extends the synthetic control analysis of Matta, Appleton and Bleaney (2016), who estimate the economic cost of the Arab Spring in Tunisia. Using the Synthetic Control Method, the paper first reconstructs a counterfactual path for Tunisia's GDP per capita in the absence of the 2011 Arab Spring and assesses the extent to which the original findings can be reproduced using updated data. It then extends the analysis to a second major political shock, the July 2021 political changes and subsequent institutional reconfiguration, constructing a new synthetic control for Tunisia over the 2011–2021 pre-treatment period.
The results show a clear divergence between actual Tunisia and its synthetic counterfactual following both political shocks. The post-2011 gap indicates a substantial and persistent shortfall in GDP per capita relative to the estimated counterfactual, while the post-2021 estimates point to a further negative divergence that persists through 2025. Placebo tests and post-to-pre-treatment RMSPE ratios indicate that the observed post-treatment divergence is large relative to the pre-treatment fit and is relatively unusual among the placebo donor countries.
Overall, the findings suggest that Tunisia's economic performance following major political shocks has been weaker than the corresponding synthetic counterfactual, with the post-2021 period associated with a further divergence from the estimated counterfactual growth path.
GDP per capita (PPP, constant international $), actual vs. synthetic-control counterfactuals, 1990–2025 · hover or tap the chart to read off values
Source: World Development Indicators; author's Synthetic Control calculations. Synthetic Tunisia (Arab Spring) fit on 1990–2010; Synthetic Tunisia (2021 Exceptional Measures) fit on 2011–2021. Figures are rounded for display and reproduce Figure 1 of the paper.
